Development and Assessment of a Fire Model for Forest Park, Portland, Oregon

"The goal of the research is to develop a fire simulation model that can be used by city officials to predict the behavior and probability of fire in Forest Park under various forest, weather, and threat conditions.  Forest Park consists of 2,025 hectares of forest in the northwest quadrant of the city of Portland, Oregon.  Since Euro-American settlement in the 1850s, the forest has been harvested and numerous fires have burned many areas leading to multi-aged and mixed stand development.  The fire regime of the region suggests a fire return interval of over 200 years, but this standard may not be accurate for Forest Park given its use and proximity to a large urban center.  In 1951 a high-intensity crown fire swept over 25% of the park and provides a known break in the successional pattern.  Using USFS Firemon standards[,] six monitoring plots have been established within and adjacent to the 1951 fire zone.  Tree crown and fuel sampling methods were employed at each plot for the development of a fuel model.  A network of weather stations provides wind data to generate a three-dimensional wind field simulation using a computational fluid dynamics model.  Ignition potential will be identified through the analysis of development intensity adjacent to the park and human-forest interaction points and patterns.  Ignition threat points representing the highest probability scores will become ignition points in the fire simulation model.  The ignition point of the 1951 fire is known which enables the fire model to be tested using historic weather data and the estimated forest stand structure." [Abstract from Conference Program and Book of Abstracts]

[Concurrent Session I-B: Fire I]

[Presented at "Emerging Issues Along Urban/Rural Interfaces: Linking Science and Society", a conference held March 13-16, 2005 in Atlanta, GA (US)]