Stated Wildfire Evacuation Behavior in the WUI: Results from a Survey in Albuquerque, NM

"Why do some people choose to evacuate their homes during a disaster while others remain behind?  This question can be answered in the abstract, but a degree of rigorously obtained foreknowledge would help to develop more effective evacuation plans and warning methods. This foreknowledge would be particularly helpful in areas where there is an increasing tendency for evacuable disasters. One such area is the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) in the American West, where wildfires have been increasingly encroaching on human habitation (Bosworth 2003). This paper tests a model where the decision to evacuate is a function of a vector of socioeconomic variables, a vector of risk perception indexes, and a vector of characteristic variables. The research was conducted using data from a mailed stated behavior survey of New Mexico households in the East Mountains area near Albuquerque.

The questions were based on research by John Whitehead (2003) that tested the predictive validity of stated behavior surveys. Given that the evacuation questions in our survey were based on his, and that our research found almost identical results, this research could be very useful for disaster planners helping to design a Community Fire Plan for the East Mountains area.  Based on a literature review, this appears to be the first paper to attempt to analyze stated evacuation behavior for wildfire." [Abstract from Conference Program and Book of Abstracts]

[Concurrent Session I-B: Fire I]

[Presented at "Emerging Issues Along Urban/Rural Interfaces: Linking Science and Society", a conference held March 13-16, 2005 in Atlanta, GA (US)]