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- Info
Single factor categorical data analysis of the 1991 Oakland/Berkeley "Tunnel" fire
| Author: |
Gordon, D.A.; Martin, R.E. |
| Date: |
2002 |
| Periodical: |
In: Blonski, K.S.; Morales, M.E.; Morales, T.J., eds. Proceedings of California's 2001 wildfire conference: 10 years after the 1991 East Bay Hills fire. [Richmond, CA]: [Publisher unknown] |
| Abstract: |
Analysis of data collected after the devastating 1991 Tunnel has provided interesting insight into factors contributing to the probability of a home surviving a wildland fire. Utilizing a GIS database to select structures for analysis based on geography allowed an analysis to be conducted in which there existed a variety of structure conditions. Once records were selected, contingency table analyses were performed on the 100 variables. Preliminary results from the data indicate that civilian presence at a structure can have a large impact on the likelihood of structure survival. Other factors contributing to the survivability of a structure include structural characteristics such as the presence of double pane windows, screened eave vents and decks made of nonflammable materials. Defensive actions by either fire personnel or civilians were also associated with structure survival. Factors such as helicopter drops, civilian use of hoses or sprinklers after the passage of the fire front, and removal of vegetation by firefighters prior to the arrival of the fire were at least ten times more likely to be associated with structure survival than in their absence. Once single factor analysis has been completed, a similar examination of factors on a group, or neighborhood, level will be done to try to identify factors significant for a group of structures to survive a wildland fire. Identification of factors using statistical models can allow more efficient and accurate development of a more systematic and quantitative model for structure survival in a wildland fire. |
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