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- Info
Predicting severe wildfire years in the Florida Everglades
| Author: |
Beckage, B.; Platt,W.J. |
| Date: |
2003 |
| Periodical: |
Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment |
| Abstract: |
Wildfires result in important ecological benefits to many ecosystems , but have costs associated with fire fighting and property loss . Accurate , timely forecasts of the severity of upcoming wildfire seasons could facilitate wildfire management , limiting the most destructive aspects of fires , while preserving their ecological benefits . We demonstrate an approach where time series models are used to predict the severity of the wildfire season in Everglades National Park in southern Florida 3 months and 1 year beforehand . Model predictions contained all observations within a 90 % credible interval and also anticipated severe wildfire seasons . These models may be used to implement more ecologically sound wildfire management .
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