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- Info
Land use in Maine: Determinants of past trends and projections of future changes
| Author: |
Plantinga, Andrew J.; Mauldin, Thomas; Alig, Ralph J. |
| Date: |
1999 |
| Periodical: |
Research Paper PNW-RP-511. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station |
| Abstract: |
The purpose of this report was to analyze past land use trends in Maine and, based on these results, develop projections of future land use. This paper discusses past trends in land use in Maine and reviews previous studies of the determinants of land use. Empirical evidence and land use theory are brought together under "An Econometric Model of Land Use." In "Projections of Land Use in Maine," projections are generated based on the estimation results of the econometric model section of this paper. Conclusions are contained in a final section. About 90 percent of the land in Maine is in forests. We analyzed past land use trends in Maine and developed projections of future land use. Since the 1950s, the area of forest in Maine has increased by almost 400,000 acres; however, the trends differ among ownerships, as the area of nonindustrial private timberland declined by 800,000 acres since 1950, while private industrial area rose by 681,000 acres. We used econometric analyses to identify variables affecting land allocation, such as population density. Estimated equations were used to generate decadal land use projections to 2050. Our projections showed that private timberland area will decline by almost 3 percent by 2050, with urban areas increasing by 56 percent. The results supported theoretical and empirical findings that land use patterns are determined by relative rents and land quality. Land tends to be allocated to the use providing the highest land rents, and the rents associated with a given use may affect tradeoffs among other uses. |
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