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- Info
Field procedures for verification and adjustment of fire behavior predictions
| Author: |
Rothermel, R.C.; Rinehart, G.C. |
| Date: |
1983 |
| Periodical: |
Ogden, UT: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station; Gen. Tech. Rep. INT-142. 25 p. |
| Abstract: |
The problems of verifying fire predictions at the optional level are discussed and four fire prediction situations identified: (1) predicting fire spread several hours before it is expected, using a weather forecast; (2) predicting fire spread just before it occurs, using measured weather data; (3) predicting fire spread after the fact, with weather data measured during the fire; (4) predicting fire behavior after the fact, with all of the fire model inputs measured rather than inferred. Opportunities and problems associated with several types of fire, including wildfires, prescribed fires, both planned and unplanned as well as fires dedicated to verification, are discussed. Procedures for collecting and analyzing data are detailed for accessible fires and inaccessible fires. Analyses for choosing the appropriate fuel model, for evaluating prediction capability, and for improving predictions by the use of simple linear regression techniques are explained and illustrated with examples from the field. |
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