|
|
- Info
Economic effects of catastrophic wildfires
| Author: |
Mercer, D. Evan; Pye, John M.; Prestemon, Jeffrey P.; [and others] |
| Date: |
2000 |
| Periodical: |
Research Triangle Park, NC: USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station; unpublished final report. 64 p |
| Link: |
http://flame.fl-dof.com/joint_fire_sciences/economic.pdf
|
| Abstract: |
The objective of this project was to assess the economic effects of catastrophic forest wildfires in Florida and various causal factors contributing to these fires, principal among them the use of prescribed burning. We used static and dynamic analyses at several spatial and temporal scales drawing on a combination of operational, survey and other data sources. One analysis estimated the economic effects of the 1998 wildfires in northeastern Florida, proximally caused by an unusually dangerous weather pattern associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. The 1998 wildfires had unusually large economic effects, conservatively estimated at $620 million, with over half of the damages through timber market losses and distortions. A static analysis of 1998 wildfire risk based on fixed permanent inventory plots in this area identified as high risk: coniferous forests such as baldcypress, forests with substantial understory vegetation, fragmented forests, and forests in or near hydric sites and wetland forests. Stands at low risk of wildfire were on xeric sites or had experienced a wildfire during the previous survey interval, 4-13 years prior to 1998. Historical analysis of wildfires over nearly two decades and across the state found that wildfires in Florida can be modeled using the same log-log linear model used in studies of wildfire size distributions in other regions with or without fire suppression programs. In general, large fires were responsible for most of the area burned although the extent that this was true varied by ecoregion and year. For example, the 1998 fires in northeastern Florida showed a much flatter distribution than observed in other serious fire years, indicating large fires played an unusually large role that year. Analyses of annual wildfire area by county over this long period and across the state found that wildfire area was negatively related to county housing density and negatively related to wildfire area in previous years but was not significantly related to prescribed fire permits issued in that county. Coupled with the results of the fixed FIA plot analysis, this finding implies that wildfires have the primary suppressive effect on wildfire risk. Efforts to quantify the role of prescribed burning in reducing wildfire risk were unsuccessful in all of the analyses, although it should be noted that these analyses only considered wildfire area and not wildfire intensity or damage. |
|
